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• 18:07, 19 November 2025 AdminIsidore talk contribs created page Argument from Silence in Bayesian Historiography (Created page with "Argument from silence infers hypotheses from absent expected evidence, formalized Bayesially as low posterior when P(E|H) high but E unobserved. In historiography, it counters binary fallacies by quantifying silence strength. === Definition === If P(E|H) ≈1 (evidence expected if true) and E absent, then P(H|E) ↓ via likelihood ratio L = P(E|H)/P(E|¬H) <<1. Silence valid when source comprehensive and unbiased. Priors: Baseline mention rates from cohorts (e.g., 0.7...")