Argument from Silence in Bayesian Historiography: Revision history

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19 November 2025

  • curprev 18:0718:07, 19 November 2025 AdminIsidore talk contribs 1,335 bytes +1,335 Created page with "Argument from silence infers hypotheses from absent expected evidence, formalized Bayesially as low posterior when P(E|H) high but E unobserved. In historiography, it counters binary fallacies by quantifying silence strength. === Definition === If P(E|H) ≈1 (evidence expected if true) and E absent, then P(H|E) ↓ via likelihood ratio L = P(E|H)/P(E|¬H) <<1. Silence valid when source comprehensive and unbiased. Priors: Baseline mention rates from cohorts (e.g., 0.7..."
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